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Complex adaptive systems - Practical ForesightUnderstanding complexity
Predicting the future is not possible because our world is a complex adaptive system. It is characterized by non-linear, complex, highly dynamic, interlocking issues that change in unexpected ways and at varying rates. The often stated "butterfly effect," a butterfly flapping its wings in China is a small component of creating a hurricane in the West Indies," is an example of this phenomenon. Rumours started by one person going global within hours thanks to the Internet and setting hares running in positive and negative directions, is another. Often, the biggest weakness in a system is the least known and observed part of that system and its here that the biggest possibilities for unforeseen interaction occur.

The further we look out the harder it is to predict because the number of possibilities for unforeseen interaction rises dramatically.

Complex adaptive systems exhibit these properties:
  • They manage themselves through being aware of their environment.
  • Organizations and people tend to exhibit high levels of complexity to meet fresh, external challenges.
  • New systems can emerge suddenly, without warning, using few and simple rules.
  • Large complex systems can be transformed by a single person, or small sub-systems shifting the ballgame.
  • Changes in one system affect all others.
  • The range of possibilities is endless.
Source: Thinking About The Future: Strategic Anticipation and RAHS

So, if the future cannot be predicted, how are we best able to anticipate what is plausible and possible in the years ahead?

Complex adaptive systems - Practical Foresight

One answer lies in being more aware of what is changing by constantly conducting Horizon Scanning of the coming landscape and then using intuition and mental capacity to see patterns and possibilities in the information gathered. For instance, by continously reading the news we can find many examples of systems in need of better management or re-design.

By starting to see the events of the day as parts of trend, and those trends as symptoms of underlying system structure, one can consider new ways to manage and new ways to live in a world of complex systems. But, beware! Unless you take off the blinkers and see systems as complex and adaptive you are likely to mistreat, misdesign, or misread systems if you don't respect their properties of resilience, self-organisation and hierarchy. So, beware of false boundaries, bounded rationalities, limiting factors, nonlinearities and delays. You will still be surprised but you will probably be surprised less often, and that's the essence of foresight - being better prepared for the unexpected.

Source: Thinking In Systems, Donella H. Meadows, Sustainability Institute, 2008

Law of Requisite Variety (Ashby 1956)
The law states that:
  • "The internal information and control mechanisms of a living or social system must be as varied as the environment in which it is trying to survive.
  • A system with the requisite control variety can deal with the complexity and challenges of its environment.
  • A system that tries to insulate itself from environmental variety will become highly unstable.
Therefore, the law implies that the number and diversity of sources used to scan the environment should reflect the complexity and diversity of the environment. More, is less, is therefore a key principle of horizon scanning to spot potential upcoming perturbations, major deviations from the expected and dramatic tipping points.

Benefits
  • Whole organisation contribution (divisions/subdivisions/departments) to the strategic planning process.
  • Reduces down silo effects.
  • Provides a reality check to see if any component of the organization really is a part of the system—or if it needs to be (which will change the organizational system) or perhaps needs to be pruned (frees up resources).
  • Actions, materials, etc., are looked at for the benefit of the whole organization and in creative ways, and not just for localized use.
  • ALL energy in the organization—including the negative energy and nay-sayers—is fully embraced, integrated and used to help the organization move forward.
  • Diverse persons and departments discover that they find new energy and direction by working together.
    Benefits: derived and adapted from a note from Tom Hoffman 23/07/2009


Source: Scanning the Environment, Chun Wei Choo, University of Toronto

Further reference:

Next: Systemic Change Back: Horizon Scanning To: Shaping Tomorrow

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.





thryller
thryller 		Latest page update: made by thryller , Aug 15 2009, 4:18 AM EDT (about this update About This Update thryller Edited by thryller


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vwward Human System Dynamics 0 Aug 6 2009, 5:49 PM EDT by vwward
Thread started: Aug 6 2009, 5:49 PM EDT  Watch
Lots of thought has build on complex adaptive systems. Have any on you seen the work of the Human systems dynamics institute? I have included a description from our website.

"Human systems dynamics (HSD) is a collection of concepts and tools that help make sense of the patterns that emerge from chaos when people work and play together in groups, families, organizations, and communities. (http://www.hsdinstitute.org/hsd-institute/evolution.html)

HSD uses metaphors from the physical, mathematical, and computer sciences to help practitioners understand what is happening in the everyday dynamical interactions in organizations and groups. The concepts are grounded in science, but they continue to emerge as we explore the complex behaviors of human systems. In spite of their application to complex and challenging fields, these metaphors and applications are simple to understand and highly useful."
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Keyword tags: CAS change agents complexity human system dynamics nonlinearity
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