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Counter trends, wildcards & black swans
As well as looking for trends and emerging issues, you should also be alert for counter trends and wildcards. As you identify a trend, ask what the counter trend might be (the opposite trend). Do some scanning to see if such a counter trend is obvious – it might be, it might not be. If you find some evidence of a counter trend, record that. Counter trends can derail a trend’s future trajectory, and you need to be alert to alternative outcomes if a counter trend gets stronger over time.
Wildcards are low probability, high impact events that have the potential to change the world overnight. Some sources like the Arlington Institute (http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org) explore wildcards. Identifying their potential impact has a lot to do with your ability to ask "what if" questions around trends that might seem highly improbable today. Integrating wildcards into your strategic thinking requires an open mind.
Black Swans are highly improbable, impossible to anticipate events. For example, extraterrestrials contact us, other forms of life and dimensions discovered.
You may not find any counter trends, wildcards or Black Swans but stay alert for them. They will often be weird and wacky, and you will be tempted to dismiss them as irrelevant. Explore first before you dismiss.
Because wildcards in particular are improbable, you will need to resist the voice in your head that tells you that you that it will never have an impact on your work. You will be tempted to ignore it because it seems unlikely to ever help you get your work done today or tomorrow. But, strategy is about the future, not the short term “tomorrows." Use the wildcard to explore questions like, “if this did happen, what opportunities or challenges would our organization face?”
References
A Vision for 2012. Planning for Extraordinary Change, John L. Petersen, 2008, Speaker's Corner
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007, Allan Lane
Next: Recording Scan Hits Back: Discovering Trends To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Wildcards are low probability, high impact events that have the potential to change the world overnight. Some sources like the Arlington Institute (http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org) explore wildcards. Identifying their potential impact has a lot to do with your ability to ask "what if" questions around trends that might seem highly improbable today. Integrating wildcards into your strategic thinking requires an open mind.
Black Swans are highly improbable, impossible to anticipate events. For example, extraterrestrials contact us, other forms of life and dimensions discovered.
You may not find any counter trends, wildcards or Black Swans but stay alert for them. They will often be weird and wacky, and you will be tempted to dismiss them as irrelevant. Explore first before you dismiss.
Because wildcards in particular are improbable, you will need to resist the voice in your head that tells you that you that it will never have an impact on your work. You will be tempted to ignore it because it seems unlikely to ever help you get your work done today or tomorrow. But, strategy is about the future, not the short term “tomorrows." Use the wildcard to explore questions like, “if this did happen, what opportunities or challenges would our organization face?”
References
A Vision for 2012. Planning for Extraordinary Change, John L. Petersen, 2008, Speaker's Corner
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007, Allan Lane
Next: Recording Scan Hits Back: Discovering Trends To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
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