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Delphi analysis
Delphi is a technique to structure group communication processes to deal with complex issues. It is particularly used by experts in a series of iterative learning rounds.
Delphi first establishes the group's initial view, presents instant feedback on differing opinions, and goal seeks an agreed position in the final round.
Contributors to the group analysis do not have to meet in person and can see the results as they, and their colleagues, add their views in real time.
At the beginning, the organizer(s) formulate questions about the future and present these to contributors.
Contributors respond by adding their rankings and comments.
The organizers then modify the anonymous comments received to formulate better questions. The process is run again, in a series of rounds, until a consensus answer is arrived at.
Uses of the Delphi method:
• Consensus building • Avoiding groupthink • Generating ideas • Forecasting future issues
Benefits
Steps to complete a Delphi Analysis
• Team creation
• Selection of participants
• Establishment of the question(s)
• Question sense-check testing
• First round voting/commenting
• First round analysis
• Revision of question(s)
• Second round/voting/commenting
• Second round analysis (more rounds if required)
• Stable consensus achieved
• Conclusions produced
Further reference:
Next: Monitoring Back: Statistical To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Delphi first establishes the group's initial view, presents instant feedback on differing opinions, and goal seeks an agreed position in the final round.
Contributors to the group analysis do not have to meet in person and can see the results as they, and their colleagues, add their views in real time.
At the beginning, the organizer(s) formulate questions about the future and present these to contributors.
Contributors respond by adding their rankings and comments.
The organizers then modify the anonymous comments received to formulate better questions. The process is run again, in a series of rounds, until a consensus answer is arrived at.
Uses of the Delphi method:
• Consensus building • Avoiding groupthink • Generating ideas • Forecasting future issues
Benefits
- Fast consensus
- Virtual participation
- Handles single or multiple questions
- Paradigm shifts can be problematic
- Participant expertise may reduce result
- Cross-impact not considered
- Team leaders can bias the result
- Disagreements may not be properly resolved
Steps to complete a Delphi Analysis
• Team creation
• Selection of participants
• Establishment of the question(s)
• Question sense-check testing
• First round voting/commenting
• First round analysis
• Revision of question(s)
• Second round/voting/commenting
• Second round analysis (more rounds if required)
• Stable consensus achieved
• Conclusions produced
Further reference:
Next: Monitoring Back: Statistical To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
thryller |
Latest page update: made by thryller
, Aug 18 2009, 1:22 PM EDT
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