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Framework
Different outputs result from different modes of scanning. There are four modes of scanning and they require different approaches to gathering and integrating input material.
Source: Approaches to Environmental Scanning, Aguilar (1967), Choo (1998)
The scanning framework above illustrates the interactions and associated outputs of the four modes of scanning. This framework is the most efficient method for categorising change. Implicit in the scanning modes are different stages of trend diffusion. As a trend moves from fringe/ emerging to what could be called "mega-trend" the inherent levels of impact and awareness grow resulting in more available material.
These four scanning modes can then be linked to a specific tier of outputs in terms of priority, as set out below:
Tier 1 Formal search > Key alerts – those areas of change likely to have the widest organizational impact.
Tier 2 Conditioned viewing > More alerts – those areas of change where critical impacts are likely to occur.
Tier 3 Informal search > Selected trends – those areas of change which need to be monitored and may be the focus of specific project work.
Tier 4 Undirected viewing > Unselected trends – currently unforeseen changes which could affect other issues or emerge as new issues.
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- Formal Search: Systematically collect information relating to a specific question
- Conditioned Viewing: Focus on selected topics of interest
- Informal Search: Deepen understanding of a topic
- Undirected Viewing: Monitor general material for serendipitous discovery and change
Source: Approaches to Environmental Scanning, Aguilar (1967), Choo (1998)
The scanning framework above illustrates the interactions and associated outputs of the four modes of scanning. This framework is the most efficient method for categorising change. Implicit in the scanning modes are different stages of trend diffusion. As a trend moves from fringe/ emerging to what could be called "mega-trend" the inherent levels of impact and awareness grow resulting in more available material.
These four scanning modes can then be linked to a specific tier of outputs in terms of priority, as set out below:
Tier 1 Formal search > Key alerts – those areas of change likely to have the widest organizational impact.
Tier 2 Conditioned viewing > More alerts – those areas of change where critical impacts are likely to occur.
Tier 3 Informal search > Selected trends – those areas of change which need to be monitored and may be the focus of specific project work.
Tier 4 Undirected viewing > Unselected trends – currently unforeseen changes which could affect other issues or emerge as new issues.
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- Tier 1 Formal Search - Key alerts: Identifies the most influential 15-20 or so key drivers which are likely to affect strategy and need to be acted upon over a given time-frame using Formal Search techniques to collect, analyze, and present evidence. Examples might be "ageing population" or "economic and political emergence of less developed nations." These are linked wherever possible to explicit policy and/or strategy priorities.
- Tier 2 Conditioned Viewing - More alerts: Identifies around 50-60 important alerts providing targeted analyses of significant trends which are less dominant than the key drivers but may gain in relevance in response to a particular strategic question, perhaps framed by a specialist area. These are not as important as those requiring action in Tier 1 but they do need to be managed.
- Tier 3 Informal Search – Selected trends: Identifies about 100-300 emerging challenges that need to be watched rather than managed or acted upon immediately. Again, these gain value either in response to a specialist question or in support of themes identified in Tier 1 and Tier 2 (they can be referenced rather than repeated).
- Tier 4 Undirected Viewing – Unselected trends: This category captures "emerging issues" or "weak signals," and includes issues which are not yet supported by extensive quantitative data, but which are observable as qualitatively assessed phenomena. They are flagged as a separate category both as a matter of good practice (the evidence is not yet as strong) but also because it increases end-user value. The emerging issues are more likely to produce challenging “What if?” questions which enable strategic planners and policy-makers to assess potential impacts to their policy or strategy. An example of "Unselected trend" might, for illustrative purposes, be: Experiments with "sky scraper farms" in cities, using controlled environment agriculture to increase local food production.
Using a tiered model of scanning makes explicit how scanning and evidence gathering become more structured as one moves from Tier 4 to Tier 1, with the added benefit that users recognize and understand the different types of outputs being provided. The tools and techniques employed enable all the different stages of the scanning process from the very open-ended identification of a single item through to the evaluation of actions needed to counter the impacts of major trends.
- Users can find much more relevant material to their everyday work, thus encouraging greater usage of the scans.
- Users can comment on and tag upcoming change creating a people-driven view of expected future change.
- Researchers can quickly see new serendipitous discoveries of previously unseen linkages between factors.
- A wider range of material can be sourced and time-lined to provide evidence of the issue's changing signal strength.
- Conditioned viewing is improved by the earlier addition of new factors, modifying existing issues, and the retirement of old ones as things change dynamically.
- It becomes far less likely that Conditioned Viewing misses major issues and therefore reduces potential for criticism.
- The system can be kept continually up-to-date and remain topical.
Source: This structure is discussed by Professor Choo of Toronto University as the most efficient method for categorizing change in his ground-breaking papers on efficient and effective Horizon Scanning.
Next: Making Time Back: Source Categorization To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Next: Making Time Back: Source Categorization To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
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