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Future Assumptions
Philosophy - The future cannot be predicted and is not-pre-determined.
- Tomorrow will be little like today.
- What people say could never happen usually does!
- "Futures studies is not prediction, but exploration and provocation!" (Source: Infinite Futures)
- Decisions are based on what is known and in making those decisions the future is pre-determined.
- Being better informed of potential, possible and plausible futures helps to make better informed decisions.
- There is not one future but many possible futures. Of those possible futures, some are more plausible, probable and preferable than others.
- The future is something we can create or shape, rather than be already decided.
Risk assessment
Foresight encompasses:
- Horizon Scanning for upcoming change
- Strategic Thinking through consideration of the change issues raised
- Action Planning from the learning gained
- Networking, both to inform the programme or project and to communicate decisions and results to the various stakeholders.
This process ought to be continuous and its elements cycled around as the future unfolds. Missing components run the risk of sub-optimum outcomes or, worse, failure. Risk assessment and plans to manage threats are therefore essential upfront.
Need for integration
Scanning as a standalone activity is largely ineffective if it's not integrated with:
- Managerial sense-making activities
- Managing risk and uncertainty
- Periodic reviews of decision-making assumptions and mental models
- Ongoing strategic thinking and planning
- Inherent in scenario planning, wild car or consequence exercises
- Policy development
- Organisational creative thinking processes
Further reference
Next: Futures Outcomes Back: Foresight Approaches To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.
thryller |
Latest page update: made by thryller
, Nov 15 2008, 5:47 PM EST
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Keyword tags:
Change
Creativity
Foresight
Futures
Prediction
Risk
Sense-making
Strategy
Thinking
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