Future assumptionsThis is a featured page

AssumptionsPhilosophy
  • The future cannot be predicted and is not pre-determined.
  • Tomorrow will be little like today.
  • What people say could never happen, usually does!
  • "Futures studies is not prediction, but exploration and provocation!" (Source: Infinite Futures)
  • Decisions are based on what is known; and in making those decisions, the future is pre-determined.
  • Being better informed of potential, possible, and plausible futures helps to make better informed decisions.
  • There is not one future but many possible futures. Of those possible futures, some are more plausible, probable, and preferable than others.
  • The future is something we can create or shape, rather than be already decided.
What really happens?

Risk assessment
Foresight encompasses:
  • Horizon Scanning for upcoming change.
  • Strategic Thinking through consideration of the change issues raised.
  • Action Planning from the learning gained.
  • Networking, both to inform the program or project and to communicate decisions and results to the various stakeholders.
This process ought to be continuous and its elements cycled around as the future unfolds. Missing components run the risk of sub-optimum outcomes or, worse, failure. Risk assessment and plans to manage threats are therefore essential upfront.

Need for integration
Scanning as a standalone activity is largely ineffective if it's not integrated with:
  • Managerial sense-making activities
  • Managing risk and uncertainty
  • Periodic reviews of decision-making assumptions and mental models
  • Ongoing strategic thinking and planning
  • Inherent in scenario planning, wild card, or consequence exercises
  • Policy development
  • Organizational creative thinking processes
Further references

Next: Futures Outcomes Back: Future Practices To: Shaping Tomorrow

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Keyword tags: Change Creativity Foresight Futures Prediction Risk Sense-making Strategy Thinking
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