Already a member?
Sign in
Horizon Scanning
What is Horizon Scanning?Horizon scanning is both an intelligence led and evidence-based* method for obtaining answers to key question(s) about the future. It is the best place to start when one or more people desire more information on a particular upcoming trend, uncertainty or wild card that may affect them or their organisation. Or, when an organisation wants to watch specific issues to spot upcoming change.
Horizon scanning is analogous to an early warning radar, a continuous process of pinging the environment to identify signals of change. An excellent early warning radar looks at all aspects of the global environment. Locating sources** of change from everywhere, evaluating likelihood, monitoring growth and tracking spread provides the early warning system for impending change.
By collecting, analysing and picturing what's likely/unlikely to happen within the global environment mental models of possible and probable futures can be created from which preferable futures can be chosen. By choosing preferable futures people and organisations shape their and our tomorrows.
The goal of Horizon Scanning is therefore to always describe "How will the future be different?" while Strategic Thinking and Action Planning determine "What should be done about it?"
Pre-requisites
- 'Out of the box' thinking, an open mind and a desire to discover new things
- Exposure to many sources, ideas and challenges
- Looking beyond personal and organisational, comfort zones and specialisations
- Noting opportunities and risks in an ordered fashion.
With practice you will attune your mind and be able to spot potential upcoming change accurately, quickly and effectively.
Scanning timeframes ¹
- Ad-hoc scanning - Short term, infrequent examinations usually initiated by a crisis
- Regular scanning - Studies done on a regular schedule (say, once a year)
- Continuous scanning - (also called continuous learning) - continuous structured data collection and processing on a broad range of environmental factors
Most commentators feel that in today's turbulent business environment the best scanning method available is continuous scanning. This allows the firm to act quickly, take advantage of opportunities before competitors do, and respond to environmental threats before significant damage is done
Scanning methods
- Collaborative foresight: Engaging the organisations people
- Surveys: Using surveys of stakeholders to elicit their views
- Search: Using search to find material of relevance to answering the question(s)
- Exercises: Conducting internal and external strategic exercises
- Scouting networks: Employing international networks of savvy people to report change
Each can standalone or be employed in conjunction with the other two approaches.
Further reference
- Sharpen Your Business Acumen
- How To Predict The Future Of Your Company
- Thinking About The Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight
- Environmental scanning¹
- Environmental scanning: A Holistic Approach
- Was It Good For You?: Subjective-Objective Issues in Applied Futures Research
** The original provider of the evidence or intelligence noting or commenting on emerging change. Sources can be "hard/quantitative": Statistical data sets or "soft/qualitative": Personal perspectives on possibilities or issues.
Next: Strategic Thinking Back: Futures Presentations To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.
thryller |
Latest page update: made by thryller
, Nov 15 2008, 4:10 PM EST
(about this update
About This Update
Edited by thryller
1 word added 1 word deleted view changes - complete history) |
|
Keyword tags:
Collaboration
Exercises
Foresight
Futures
Horizon Scanning
Networks
Surveys
More Info: links to this page
|
