Learning from the pastThis is a featured page

What can we learn from our history to help us understand the future?
Examining history can teach us much about the future:
  • History often repeats itself or shows how the future evolved in similar circumstances to today's world.
  • History, too, is littered with tipping points, surprises, shocks, and human advances that we can learn from.
  • History is as much unknowable as what we perceive is the reality of today or what the future holds.
Historic surprise has manifested itself in many situations including:
  • The thought that everything that could be invented had been invented at the end of the 19th century.
  • IBM's prediction that the world would need only 7 computers to run its affairs.
  • Western Union predicting in 1876 that "the telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
We now know these predictions and ideas were extraordinarily fanciful. The 20th century, far from being benign, saw man fly both terrestrially and in space, discover nuclear energy, design personal vehicles for mass human transportation, link almost everyone through global telecommunication systems, and significantly improve both health and longevity. These discoveries completely changed the world. And, of course, "the war to end all wars" was followed by the Second World War and hundreds more since.

NOTHING IS FOREVER AND THE ONLY CONSTANT IN LIFE IS CHANGE!

The same human opportunity to change the world again, for better or worse, in this century, presents itself through advances in robotics, remote sensoring, artificial intelligence, anti-aging, sustainable practices, and energy transformation, etc. Yet new threats present clear and present danger such as financial chaos, climate change, pandemics, natural resource shortages, new wars, and as yet, new, unforeseen wildcards.

Examining history shows us that the pace and nature of change is accelerating more rapidly than ever before. The outcome of this acceleration has been to make the world increasingly more complex and uncertain. We can expect even greater complexity and uncertainty as ever more sophisticated responses to improving the human condition and solving today's issues create new surprises tomorrow.

Driving forces
Two driving forces have been instrumental in accelerating change:
  • Globalization: markets have progressively moved from local to national, to international, to multi-national, to truly global, and soon to be virtualized systems. This expansion has lead to increasing sophistication, rapid product and service diffusion, and innovation and learning on a global scale.
  • Techological advancement: The technological revolution (Internet, PC's, Mobile phones, E-mail, Office software) has been a key driver of this diffusion, and in making the world a far smaller place through dramatic improvements in transportation and the arrival of near-instant communication.
And these driving forces have created further negative forces for change in the form of increasing terrorism, crime, conflict, financial crises, and health threats, among others.
Knowing the future is impossible – yet essential, not least in business. The right decisions offer huge opportunities, the wrong ones, huge risks. Watching the unfolding effect of these and other key driving forces is therefore an essential element of spotting emerging opportunities and threats. Historical analysis of how an issue has developed, and considering this in the context of parallels and precedents, is an essential part of practical foresight.

Counterpoints
Two counterpoint maxims for you to consider:
  • "Those who drive their car through the rear-view mirror will never see the future."
  • "Those who don't read history are doomed to relive it!"
A good futurist is therefore most likely a good historian, too, through acquainting themselves with the broadest reading of history. By going back in history twice as far as looking forward, knowing the potential outcomes of the past, applying these to emerging issues, and considering potential futures in equal measure futurists develop considerable foresight .

Further references: A Brief History of the Future
World Transformed: What Are the Top 30 Innovations of the Last 30 Years?

Next: Overcoming Roadblocks Back: Learning Organization To: Shaping Tomorrow

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thryller
thryller 		Latest page update: made by thryller , Aug 19 2009, 3:48 AM EDT (about this update About This Update thryller Edited by thryller


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