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Making future thinking a key part of day-to-day problem solving and decision-making is an ideal way to create a learning organization. Holding occasional executive sessions on the future of the organization is less than ideal and can be dangerous if management is not alive to ever-changing opportunities and threats.

On the strategic front the executive need to be alive to the possibilities of they, or their rivals, choosing a different time and place to play from everyone else. Future thinking helps identify these new playing fields and those likely to play on them.

Futures exercises need not be time-consuming or resource intensive, and can take a variety of forms engaging the whole organization rather than just the leadership team.

Exercises
  • Collecting reports, plans, program descriptions
  • Focus groups
  • Participant action approaches
  • Ethnographic study
  • Anecdotes
  • Case study analysis
  • Oral histories
  • Futuring exercises
  • Visualization maps
  • Organizational health checks
  • Accessing networks (yours and others)
  • Job rotation of researchers and line people
  • Systematically analyzing customer complaints and idea schemes
  • Monitoring the venture capital market and start-up firms
  • Executive programs for constantly discovering stakeholder ideas
  • Experiential virtual world programs; Second Life, YouTube
  • Foresight/Google mashups
Participatory futures exercises help stimulate high-level strategic thinking by everyone involved at whatever level they are in the organization.

Meetings
Leadership agendas to consider the conclusions of these exercises might ask these open-ended questions:
  • What conclusions can we draw from the exercise(s)?
  • How might the future be different?
  • What certainties/uncertainties are implied in the conclusions?
  • How does A affect B?
  • What is likely to remain the same or change significantly?
  • What are the likely outcomes?
  • What and who will likely shape our future?
  • Where could we be most affected by change?
  • What might we do about it?
  • What don't we know that we need to know?
  • What should we do now, today?
  • Why do we care?
  • When should we aim to meet again on this?
Shell's seven questions
Or they might be more open-ended questions such as:
  • If I could answer any question for you, what would it be?
  • If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____ space, what would it be?
  • If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ space, what would it be?
  • What does the _______ space need to forget?
  • What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________ space on the horizon?
  • What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______ space?
  • What are the obstacles to progress in the ________ space?
  • What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end).
Further reference

Next: Learning from the Past Back: Imagining the Future To: Shaping Tomorrow

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sunfirejewels
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