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Quantitative evaluation
External assessment
The next step in completing the brief is for the author and/or evalation team to assess the signal strength, timing, and likely public response to the issue from an external assessment perspective. Indicators include:
Then the client evaluation team should complete an internal assessment of the opportunities and threats faced by the organization in confronting the issues raised in the brief. Indicators include:
Stimulus and evidence
A good discipline is also to evaluate the stimulus offered by the brief to readers as follows:
And to assess the quality of the evidence taken in the round:
Further reference: How to Evaluate Science and Technology Forecasts
Next: Reporting Trends Back: Classifying Trends To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
The next step in completing the brief is for the author and/or evalation team to assess the signal strength, timing, and likely public response to the issue from an external assessment perspective. Indicators include:
- Change type: improvement | discovery | event | perspective | policy | trend | transformation | uncertainty | wild card
- Time frame: now | 5-9 years | 10 -14 years | 15-20 years | 20+ years | never
- Penetration: non-existing | trial | niche | widespread | ubiquitous
- Potential: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Likelihood: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Urgency: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Complexity: disorder | simple | complicate | complex | chaotic
- Controversy: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Geography: local | national | regional | global cyberspace | outer space
- Rate of change: instant | days | months | years | decades |
- Maturity: weak signal | emerging | growing | maturing | declining
Then the client evaluation team should complete an internal assessment of the opportunities and threats faced by the organization in confronting the issues raised in the brief. Indicators include:
- Decision: tier 1 | tier 2 | tier 3 | tier 4
- Opportunity: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Motivation: legally must do | time constrained | high value | scarce resources | growth
- Cost savings: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Difficulty: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Risk: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Cost: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Approach: lead | exploit | adopt | also ran | just in time
- Prepared: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Stimulus and evidence
A good discipline is also to evaluate the stimulus offered by the brief to readers as follows:
- Inspiring: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Engaging: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Enabling: very high | high | medium | low | very low
- Novelty: shock | surprise | new news | old news | none
And to assess the quality of the evidence taken in the round:
- Credentials: expert | professional | pundit | amateur | fringe
- Bias: very impartial | somewhat impartial | balanced | somewhat partial | very partial
- Methodology: robust analysis | partial analysis | commentary | opinion led | speculative
- Assumptions: accurate | specific | deduced | faulty | inaccurate
- Possess the most external potential.
- Must be acted on now, managed, watched, or left on the shelf for another future review.
- Represent the biggest stimulus and challenge for change.
- Are robust or which have only rudimentary evidence.
Further reference: How to Evaluate Science and Technology Forecasts
Next: Reporting Trends Back: Classifying Trends To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
thryller |
Latest page update: made by thryller
, Oct 11 2009, 4:49 AM EDT
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