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Scanning strategies
Researchers usually adopt one of three scanning strategies:
Evidence-based Horizon Scanning (Deductive approach)
In an evidenced-based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that supports an issue or that seeks to provide answers to key questions usually for a specific project, and which may, or may not be repeated sometime in the future. Evidence-based scanning is usually static, periodic, and issue focused.
In this form of scanning the issue owner:
One way of doing this is to discover just where the targeted readership obtains their material. A quick organizational survey will improve the quality and provide a single source for their research. In other words, an enterprise-wide knowledge base of evidence can be created which retains corporate memory and informs everyone of the current and past state of play. This side benefit has significant potential to reduce costs of evidence collection and increase organizational knowing.
Intelligence-Based Horizon Scanning (Inductive approach)
In an intelligence-based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that adds to or identifies new issues as they arise with the aim of tracking change and creating an alerting system for new opportunities and threats. Intelligence-based scanning is dynamic, continuous, and usually targeted at keeping up to speed on external potential change in an organization's direct and indirect key interests.
In this form of scanning the process above is reversed with the researcher:
Balancing the need for evidence and intelligence
A well-structured Horizon Scanning system will support both evidence and intelligence-based methods.
However often a scan needs updating, it needs to be systematic and repeatable. At the same time, users need to see the bigger picture around their strategic issues, rather than diving into detail. It is also the case that trends tend to change slowly. Even shocking events, such as 9/11, are usually – if a scanning process is robust – evidence of trends or emerging issues which have already been identified.
In this sense, therefore, in building a repeatable horizon scanning process, the perfect is the enemy of the good. One can always make an evidence/intelligence base better, but there comes a point where diminishing returns set in, and money spent on improving the evidence/intelligence base further would be better spent on engagement or communication.
A balance can be struck by using the tiers to prioritize actions, ongoing undirected scanning to capture new and emerging ideas, expert review and workshops to continue to identify gaps or altered priorities, using all of these to identify where new future briefings should be written as well as linking new material to existing future briefings.
Applying systematic mapping methods ensures the scans become complete and consistent. The principal methods are bibliometrics and patent mapping. Scan entries can be visually mapped to check for gaps, which are addressed with new data from information sources.
Next: Scanning Methods Back: Reporting Scan Hits To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
- Change directed: where the background is known and continuities, and potential changes of any kind from the norm are sought, e.g., searching for any kind of change in an interest topic.
- Signal directed: where specific, known signals, signatures, or trends are sought but little is known of the background "noise," e.g., searching for issue gaps to use in subsequent strategic planning.
- Pattern directed: where apparently random signals without context and requiring interpretation are sought through emerging pattern recognition or trend analysis, e.g., searching for outliers and changing distribution of observations.
Evidence-based Horizon Scanning (Deductive approach)
In an evidenced-based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that supports an issue or that seeks to provide answers to key questions usually for a specific project, and which may, or may not be repeated sometime in the future. Evidence-based scanning is usually static, periodic, and issue focused.
In this form of scanning the issue owner:
- identifies strategic issues
- commissions future briefing papers
- asks for research to further inform the future briefing papers
- demands evidence
- requests citing of new evidence
- conducts quality assurance
- publishes a future briefing paper
One way of doing this is to discover just where the targeted readership obtains their material. A quick organizational survey will improve the quality and provide a single source for their research. In other words, an enterprise-wide knowledge base of evidence can be created which retains corporate memory and informs everyone of the current and past state of play. This side benefit has significant potential to reduce costs of evidence collection and increase organizational knowing.
Intelligence-Based Horizon Scanning (Inductive approach)
In an intelligence-based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that adds to or identifies new issues as they arise with the aim of tracking change and creating an alerting system for new opportunities and threats. Intelligence-based scanning is dynamic, continuous, and usually targeted at keeping up to speed on external potential change in an organization's direct and indirect key interests.
In this form of scanning the process above is reversed with the researcher:
- citing fresh intelligence
- discovering new patterns and connections
- using research to further inform future briefing papers
- creating future briefing papers
- identifying strategic issues
- conducting quality assurance
- publishing the future briefing paper
Balancing the need for evidence and intelligence
A well-structured Horizon Scanning system will support both evidence and intelligence-based methods.
However often a scan needs updating, it needs to be systematic and repeatable. At the same time, users need to see the bigger picture around their strategic issues, rather than diving into detail. It is also the case that trends tend to change slowly. Even shocking events, such as 9/11, are usually – if a scanning process is robust – evidence of trends or emerging issues which have already been identified.
In this sense, therefore, in building a repeatable horizon scanning process, the perfect is the enemy of the good. One can always make an evidence/intelligence base better, but there comes a point where diminishing returns set in, and money spent on improving the evidence/intelligence base further would be better spent on engagement or communication.
A balance can be struck by using the tiers to prioritize actions, ongoing undirected scanning to capture new and emerging ideas, expert review and workshops to continue to identify gaps or altered priorities, using all of these to identify where new future briefings should be written as well as linking new material to existing future briefings.
Applying systematic mapping methods ensures the scans become complete and consistent. The principal methods are bibliometrics and patent mapping. Scan entries can be visually mapped to check for gaps, which are addressed with new data from information sources.
Next: Scanning Methods Back: Reporting Scan Hits To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
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Latest page update: made by sunfirejewels
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