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Scenario planning
Scenario planning is one of the most well-known and most cited as a useful technique for thinking about the future.
Scenario planning questions assumptions we all make about the future. The method creates plausible views of the future that decision-makers can use to determine their best response and how to react to alternative plays.
Scenarios are qualitatively distinct visions, told as stories, of how the future looks. They make explicit the assumptions of how the world works. Building scenarios helps us to:
As the project progresses, the process will move from wide exploration to a narrowing of focus, from horizon scanning to envisioning potential futures and determining response as the diagram above shows.
The key in creating scenarios of best/worst case options is in finding that strategy that represents the best middle ground on which to base subsequent action plans.
Scenario planning questions assumptions we all make about the future. The method creates plausible views of the future that decision-makers can use to determine their best response and how to react to alternative plays.
Scenarios are qualitatively distinct visions, told as stories, of how the future looks. They make explicit the assumptions of how the world works. Building scenarios helps us to:
- Understand the realm of possible options;
- Makes us live the future in advance so as we can take better decisions today;
- Changes our vision of how the world works;
- Generates a common understanding of the real issues;
- Lets us test our decisions against a range of possible worlds;
- Helps us to deal with complex adaptive environments where the outcome is uncertain.
- Identify risks to, and opportunities over a desired time period;
- Expose long term challenges for strategies and policies;
- Deal with a mix of wide ranging qualitative and quantitative inputs
- Enable assumptions to be made clear and explicit
- Make real the implications of these challenges;
- Encourage collaboration;
- Support and improve vision and policy making by starting grounded and challenging conversations about choices, trade-offs and conflicts;
- Build capacity among staff in futures work
As the project progresses, the process will move from wide exploration to a narrowing of focus, from horizon scanning to envisioning potential futures and determining response as the diagram above shows.
The key in creating scenarios of best/worst case options is in finding that strategy that represents the best middle ground on which to base subsequent action plans.
thryller |
Latest page update: made by thryller
, Aug 17 2009, 3:44 AM EDT
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