The next step is to make an assessment of the likely impact of your identified trends over your scanning period.

The process of interpreting your scanning hits for your organization is a pivotal step in environmental scanning. This is a step where you also add your judgement and perspective to the mix, and where you add meaning in the context of your organization’s strategic focus and priorities.

Your assessment of scanning hits is the first step in developing robust strategy and action for your organization.

Your aim here is to identify trends that might be critical in terms of your organization’s sustainability, but which are uncertain in terms of the exact nature of how they will have an impact on your organization into the future. Identifying what these trends mean for your organization, and how you might respond over time is part of the next phase of strategy development (what might happen). Right now, you are looking for possibilities, not answers.

The objective is to select trends and issues for further research by first using the series of filters below to narrow down to the vital few.

Tier 4 Undirected viewing > Unselected trends
A simple sight (eyeball test) is applied to filter out extraneous, non-interesting themes and issues against a pre-determined topic(s) or question sets. This reduces a database of potentially thousands of interesting trends to just the relevant 100-300 issues in a couple of days or less.

Tier 3 Informal search > Selected trends
Strategists and policy makers then apply a combination of urgency, likelihood, and impact ratings to these remaining issues and determine which should be moved to Tier 2.

Your assessment covers a number of categories:

• Timeframe: when will a mainstream impact begin to appear?
• Scope: how widely will the trend be accepted/adopted?
• Impact: how strong will the impact of this trend be?
• Likelihood: how quickly might this trend have an impact on the organization?
• Urgency: what is the required speed of response by the organization to the trend?

You do not have to use this type of quantitative approach, but most find it helps them think through, and rank trends in a logical manner. The critical element here is that you explore implications of the trends you have identified over a longer term period. A trend that is certain today may well be very uncertain in five years time.

Tier 2 Conditioned viewing > More alerts
Executives, strategists, and policy makers determine the Tier 1 Key alerts from the remaining 50-60 issues by in-depth discussion leaving 40-50 in Tier 2.

Tier 1 Formal search > Key alerts
The remaining highest ranked 10-15 issues are assigned to Tier 1. Normally, this as many issues that any size of organization can realistically manage to success at one time.

You can carry out this process using Shaping Tomorrow's system which is pre-populated with all the general global trends and any you have added yourself.

The table below (adapted from Shaping Tomorrow) shows a framework for assessing trends to help you identify critical trends for your organization to address now and into the future.

Assessing Trend Relevance

Consider trend impact globally						Consider trend impact on your organization
Timeframe		Scope		Impact		Likelihood		Urgency
When will trend begin to have an impact?		What is likely future uptake of this trend?		What is likely future impact of this trend?		What is the likelihood of the trend having an impact on your organization?		How quickly does the organization need to respond to this trend?
Assessment	Rating	Assessment	Rating	Assessment	Rating	Assessment	Rating	Assessment	Rating
1-4 years	5	Global	5	Significant	5	Almost Certain	5	Now	5
5-9 years	4	Widespread	4	Major	4	Likely	4	Within 3-5 years	4
10-14 years	3	Niche sector/market	3	Moderate	3	Possible	3	6-9 years	3
15-20 years	2	Organizations	2	Minor	2	Unlikely	2	10-15 years	2
20+years	1	Individuals	1	Insignificant	1	Rare	1	16-20 years	1
Never *	0	Non-existing*	0					20+ years**	0

*Before you assign “Never” or “Non-existing” to a trend, make sure you have tested your assumptions, and identified your blind spots. Ask what would have to happen to make the trend a reality? Only then should you feel comfortable assigning these categories to a trend.
** Even though the urgency to address these trends is long-term, consider keeping them on your scanning "watch list."

Assessment Total	Decision What might you do now?	Comment
Between 20-25	Act now	You need to make a decision now about whether or not your organization needs to respond to this trend. Consider how to respond and include in your current strategic plan if appropriate. If you decide not to include in your plan, then add to your watch list.
Between 15-19	Manage	You need to consider now how you might respond to these trends as they continue to emerge. It would be a good idea to include actions in your plan that allow you to act quickly if you need to.
14 and under	Watch	These trends are unlikely to have an impact on your planning in the medium term. To prevent future surprises, keep these trends on your scanning watch list.

There are several other possible strategies for carrying out this selection process. For example:

• an expert, research-based approach, wherein scanners nominate candidate themes and issues for promotion to Tier 3, “Selected trends.” Nominated trends would either be submitted to the project team for review and confirmation, or would be part of a workshop discussion, as relevant opportunities arise.
• nominations of interesting themes and issues could be requested from executives and policy makers allowing individual evaluation and polling. This can occur on-line and asynchronously, or as an electronically mediated part of workshop activities.

Next: Classifying Trends Back: Assessing Trends To: Shaping Tomorrow

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