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Source selection
Scan sources should provide early signals of the leading edge of change, whether the change is a scientific discovery, technical innovation, or a value or behavioural shift in some community of interest.
Scanners identify sources that provide information on change prior to their natural pace of entry onto the policy stage. Sources are drawn from think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals and blogs, charities and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), minority communities, and futurists.
Where to look
Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletters, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers, sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, and universities are all possible sources of information.
Unfortunately, intuitive recognition of a source as useful is not a transferable decision rule. So, in the best tradition of expert systems analyses, ask what is the purpose when choosing sources. To which the shortest possible answer is probably, "identifying opinion leaders." Because our current social construction grants credibility to intellectual adventuring within formal structures, such as science, we label those opinion leaders "experts." As innovative social and cultural ideas and behaviours challenge the status quo with the potential for transformation, they are generally marginalized – hence the usual scanning label of "fringe" for sources on emerging issues among youth, artists, social movements, the underclass, etc.
[Good scanners concentrate on identifying anomalies and patterns from their daily scans with a detailed knowledge of where information resides using proprietary and utility technology to find the best material versus source categorization. Scanners need to be open-minded, able to see opportunties and threats in change phenomena, and recognize entirely new areas for investigation within and far beyond their core interests.
Look for material that expresses:
Therefore, while initially tagging a trend as having been sourced from an amateur, or the fringe, the task is to strengthen and broaden hits in order to improve source attributes towards professional and expert. If this cannot be achieved the priority rating given to an issue would be suitably reduced.
Measurable attributes
What would be measurable or documentable attributes that would help us distinguish among sources, and that would establish sources’ credibility as opinion leaders for their communities of interest?
Text in parens above by kind permission of Infinite Futures.
Determine what should be uploaded as follows:
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Scanners identify sources that provide information on change prior to their natural pace of entry onto the policy stage. Sources are drawn from think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals and blogs, charities and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), minority communities, and futurists.
Where to look
Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletters, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers, sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, and universities are all possible sources of information.
Unfortunately, intuitive recognition of a source as useful is not a transferable decision rule. So, in the best tradition of expert systems analyses, ask what is the purpose when choosing sources. To which the shortest possible answer is probably, "identifying opinion leaders." Because our current social construction grants credibility to intellectual adventuring within formal structures, such as science, we label those opinion leaders "experts." As innovative social and cultural ideas and behaviours challenge the status quo with the potential for transformation, they are generally marginalized – hence the usual scanning label of "fringe" for sources on emerging issues among youth, artists, social movements, the underclass, etc.
[Good scanners concentrate on identifying anomalies and patterns from their daily scans with a detailed knowledge of where information resides using proprietary and utility technology to find the best material versus source categorization. Scanners need to be open-minded, able to see opportunties and threats in change phenomena, and recognize entirely new areas for investigation within and far beyond their core interests.
Look for material that expresses:
- New: novel, advance, innovation, renovation, fashion, latest, renew, innovate, newness, fresh
- First: inception, conception, initiative, beginning, debut, onset, birth, infancy, start, dawn, commencement
- Idea: notion, belief, apprehension, thought, impression, ideation, point of view, standpoint, theory, prediction
- Change: alteration, mutation, permutation, variation, modification, inflexion, mood, deviation, turn, inversion, subversion, forecast
- Surprise: marvel, astonish, amaze, wonder, stupefy, fascinate, dazzle, startle, take aback, electrify, stun, bewilder, boggle, wildcard
- Opportunity: chance, opening, crisis, juncture, conjuncture, favourable, high time
- Threat: future, prospect, anticipation, perspective, expectation, horizon, outlook, look-out, coming, forthcoming, imminent, approaching, fear, uncertainty
- Unprecedented: no precedent, unparalleled
Therefore, while initially tagging a trend as having been sourced from an amateur, or the fringe, the task is to strengthen and broaden hits in order to improve source attributes towards professional and expert. If this cannot be achieved the priority rating given to an issue would be suitably reduced.
Measurable attributes
What would be measurable or documentable attributes that would help us distinguish among sources, and that would establish sources’ credibility as opinion leaders for their communities of interest?
- High numbers of citations by members of the community: for science documents, literally the extent to which they are cited; for popular media, their distribution; for "fringe" literature, the "buzz," measurable also by popularity within their target audience and, in the case of blogs, their ranking by links and hits. Is the source therefore credible as an opinion leader for that community?
- Market niche: to whom is the source targeted? The Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine are targeted to professionals in medical research; New Scientist is targeted to scientific professionals and decision-makers, as well as interested laypeople; Discovery is targeted entirely to interested laypeople and students. Is that documentable, e.g., by reference to mission statements or self-descriptions?
- Distribution: does distribution data, or access data (in the case of web sources/info-feeds), demonstrate widespread use by members of the source’s target audience/community of interest? This would to some extent duplicate, and therefore corroborate, the citations variable, above.
- Media: the medium of information distribution itself might help distinguish among expert, fringe, and punditry, in terms of print journal, professional association newsletter, tabloid, etc.
Text in parens above by kind permission of Infinite Futures.
Determine what should be uploaded as follows:
- Does the link aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?
- Does the link explore socio-economic trends and their potential impacts?
- Does the link challenge existing political, economic, social, technological, and environmental assumptions and evidence?
- Does the link question assumptions underlying current policies?
- Does the link pioneer or employ methodologies appropriate to best practice horizon scanning, strategic planning, or change management?
- Credible and eclectic sources from the full range of disciplines
- Easy to read/plain language
- Thought provoking
- Future focused (except where history or today give context and
understanding of the future) - Helpful to creating future plans and actions
- Is at deep-link site level wherever available
- Is comprehensively described through the content classification
- Correctly describes an interesting title and properly ascribed
source - Contains a description that eliminates a site’s over-claims to
fame - Includes key tags: document type, timeframe, country of origin, url, language
- Only reference pre-payment sites at front page level and are
clearly marked as "subscription" sites
Managing source material²
Information sources are best selected by individual researchers. The task of a foresight team or manager is to give hints on additional sources and to store and distribute information for future use.
The reliability of a source needs much attention: wrong information and checks cost the scarce time and resources of the organization. Always try to triple check source material with two other similar scan hits from reputable organizations when possible.
Insights and Trends can be collected directly or indirectly with the support of information brokers, abstract or scanning services, or internal library services.
Much of this material is already collected in disparate databases and off-line systems by discrete teams in organizations. But co-ordinating these activities through a corporate wide knowledge management system means: - Significant time savings in data collection.
- Wider scanning from a diverse network.
- Organizational sense-making is improved.
Source²: Technology Foresight In Companies, Guido Reger
Where to look for sources
You can scan across a wide range of sources here.
Look for outliers and don’t be afraid of the weird and the whacky. Remember that what seems unreasonable today may well not be viewed that way in the future.
Next: Source Categorisation Back: Scanning Methods To: Shaping Tomorrow
Where to look for sources
You can scan across a wide range of sources here.
Look for outliers and don’t be afraid of the weird and the whacky. Remember that what seems unreasonable today may well not be viewed that way in the future.
Next: Source Categorisation Back: Scanning Methods To: Shaping Tomorrow
Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
sunfirejewels |
Latest page update: made by sunfirejewels
, Jun 20 2009, 12:37 PM EDT
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