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Trend analysis
Trend Analysis examines the cause, nature, potential impact, likelihood and speed of arrival of an emerging issue of change.
Trends have primary, secondary and tertiary impacts like the example below:
[insert TIA pic}
A trend may have lots of different impacts some of which may be hidden or not entirely obvious at first glance. Professional watching means teasing out these effects and mentally modelling alternative views of the future. Trendwatchers pay particular attention to secondary impacts as the richest source of knowing future possibilities.
Key identified trends need continuous monitoring, analysis and reporting to interested parties so that early warning and timely action can be put to best effect. Trends can often be plotted in a time series and projected based on current rates of change. But, remember "a trend is only a trend until it bends".
Some trends are relatively predictable like global population growth but most trend extrapolations detiororate over time the further out the projection goes. That's why constant monitoring of key trends is essential.
Shaping Tomorrow's Trend analysis system is typical of this method allowing sensitivity analysis by individuals or groups and presenting results in graphical formats. These types of formats allow discussion and learning about the nature of emerging issues on each other and facilitate re-ranking of trends until a concenus is reached on those with the biggest opportunity and/or risk.
[Insert Members analysis and TA graph]
Trends have primary, secondary and tertiary impacts like the example below:
[insert TIA pic}
A trend may have lots of different impacts some of which may be hidden or not entirely obvious at first glance. Professional watching means teasing out these effects and mentally modelling alternative views of the future. Trendwatchers pay particular attention to secondary impacts as the richest source of knowing future possibilities.
Key identified trends need continuous monitoring, analysis and reporting to interested parties so that early warning and timely action can be put to best effect. Trends can often be plotted in a time series and projected based on current rates of change. But, remember "a trend is only a trend until it bends".
Some trends are relatively predictable like global population growth but most trend extrapolations detiororate over time the further out the projection goes. That's why constant monitoring of key trends is essential.
Shaping Tomorrow's Trend analysis system is typical of this method allowing sensitivity analysis by individuals or groups and presenting results in graphical formats. These types of formats allow discussion and learning about the nature of emerging issues on each other and facilitate re-ranking of trends until a concenus is reached on those with the biggest opportunity and/or risk.
[Insert Members analysis and TA graph]
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