Sign in or 
Share this
Wild cards
Wild Cards are high-impact events that seem too incredible, or are considered too unlikely, to happen; yet many do e.g. September 11th or the recent Financial Crisis. Wild Card analysis can be used to help individuals and teams use extreme thinking to think the unthinkable about the world they inhabit and then to learn lessons in how to adapt themselves to be more resilient to future shock.
Wild Cards can take the following forms:
Considering the extreme impacts of a Wild Card, for instance, the potential break-up of the United States, rejection of new technology as harmful to society or the coming of Peak Oil far earlier than expected can lead to the discovery of new opportunities and risks and the establishment of simple early warning systems of their potential arrival.
The object of the exercise is not to predict a Wild Card but to use the learning from the exercise to strengthen an organisation's ability to withstand or exploit similar shocks. Often, simple strategic and tactical changes made to the organisation's contingency plans deliver sufficient spin-off benefit to make this analysis worthwhile. For instance, identifying that oil supplies may peak early can help organisations reduce their needs and diversify sources with concomitant benefits.
Further reference:
Wild Cards can take the following forms:
- Type I Wild Card: low probability, high impact, high credibility
- Type II Wild Card: high probability, high impact, low credibility
- Type III Wild Card: high probability, high impact, disputed credibility
- Elephant in the room: happening now, disputed impact, disputed credibility
Considering the extreme impacts of a Wild Card, for instance, the potential break-up of the United States, rejection of new technology as harmful to society or the coming of Peak Oil far earlier than expected can lead to the discovery of new opportunities and risks and the establishment of simple early warning systems of their potential arrival.
The object of the exercise is not to predict a Wild Card but to use the learning from the exercise to strengthen an organisation's ability to withstand or exploit similar shocks. Often, simple strategic and tactical changes made to the organisation's contingency plans deliver sufficient spin-off benefit to make this analysis worthwhile. For instance, identifying that oil supplies may peak early can help organisations reduce their needs and diversify sources with concomitant benefits.
Further reference:
- Out of the blue: Wild cards and other big future surprises : how to anticipate and respond to profound change John L. Petersen, Arlington Institute 1997
- A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change, John L. Petersen, Fulcrum Publishing, 2008
- Thinking Out Of The Box, Dr. Karlheinz Steinmuller, Z_Punkt GmbH. June 8th 2006
thryller |
Latest page update: made by thryller
, Aug 18 2009, 1:29 PM EDT
(about this update
About This Update
Moved from: New material - not yet assigned
- thryller
No content added or deleted. - complete history) |
|
Keyword tags:
None
More Info: links to this page
|
There are no threads for this page.
Be the first to start a new thread.
