Practical Foresight - Recently Updated Pages

Strategic Thinking

thryller — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:40:01 CST

What is Strategic Thinking¹?
Strategic thinking is intent driven. It provides a point of view about the long-term market or competitive position that an organisation hopes to achieve over a defined time period.

Source¹: Competing for the Future, Prahalahad and Hamel (1994)

Strategic Foresight:

is the ability to systematically think about and develop alternative futures.
is the planning that results when future methods are applied to real-world situations.
is the theory and practice of envisioning alternative future scenarios in order to make better decisions today, turning insight into opportunity.
uses emerging signals from political, economic, social, and technlogical environments. It feeds the front end of innovation from a human needs and technology realization opportunity perspective.
contributes to coping with uncertainty and complexity. It deals with the identification, assessment and usage of emerging signals to recognise and give warning about threats and opportunities at an early stage.

Successful strategies are rarely achieved by spontaneous flashes of genius, but rather result from the systematic collection, analysis and evaluation of facts, circumstances, trends and opinions.
Source: UK Government Cabinet Office - Survival Guide

Elements of strategic thinking²

Taking a systems perspective: mentally modelling a complete end-to-end system
Intent focused: determining a sense of direction and outcome
Intelligent opportunism: continuously adapting and innovating
Thinking in time: connecting past, present and future
Hypothesis driven: asking 'what if ...? and then 'if ... then ...'

Source²: Strategic Thinking: Can it be Taught?, Jeanne M. Liedtka (1998)

Strategic Thinking starts from recognising and understanding changes (key Insights) that are likely to take place over time by considering major trend-based outcomes in nine dimensions:

Business: competition, culture, innovation ...
Economics: finance, regulations, trade ...
Environment: agriculture, climate, raw materials ...
Healthcare: disease, medical research, well-being,
Industries: biotechnology, clean technology, nanotechnology
Lifestyles: consumption, education, values ...
Politics: government, rights, security ...
Society: community, demographics, generations ...
Technology: internet, microdevices, science ...
For a more detailed listing click here

Approach
The Strategic Thinking approach identifies the major trends in each of these dimensions and analyses ways in which these are likely to develop and interact with each other over a pre-determined study period. Nothing is guaranteed about how the future will evolve but strategic trends research requires wide-ranging and deep investigation, not shallow and narrow looks at the top ten current global trends appearing in the newspapers. Smart companies had spotted these global trends long ago through their early warning radar systems and taken advantage of being early adopters. Most likely they will be early leavers too as the market peaks and declines.

Classification
Creating a large inventory of identified Trends requires a highly effective classification system and methods to rank rate and qualify their impact.

Various models exist to classify trends and evaluate their impact. [Ranking, rating, change type, decision etc]. For example: The analytical framework described in John Petersen's book - 'Out of the Blue' (Arlington Institute).

Having established a trends database and evaluated individual trend outcomes based on probability one can determine which are the key drivers of change that will impact on particular organisations.

The future is not a single destination. The further out we look an increasing number of different possible outcomes can be foreseen. Some will influence a particular organisation more than another.

We find that none of our clients determines the same key drivers and rarely includes the top ten current trends appearing in newspapers in their current form. Through this approach organisations can map out their own destiny, unique selling points and solutions to solve real issues.

Further reference

Next: Action Planning Back: Horizon Scanning To: Shaping Tomorrow

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.

Source selection

thryller — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 04:58:57 CST

Scan sources should provide early signals of the leading edge of change, whether the change is a scientific discovery, technical innovation, or a value or behavioural shift in some community of interest.

Scanners identify sources that provide information on change prior to their natural pace of entry onto the policy stage. Sources are drawn from think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, Government sources, alternative journals and blogs, charities and NGOs, minority communities and futurists.

Here’s where to look:
‘newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletters; magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers, sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities’

'Unfortunately, intuitive recognition of a source as useful is not a transferable decision rule. So, in the best tradition of expert systems analyses, ask what is the purpose when choosing sources. To which the shortest possible answer is probably, "identifying opinion leaders." Because our current social construction grants credibility to intellectual adventuring within formal structures, such as science, we label those opinion leaders "experts." As innovative social and cultural ideas and behaviours challenge the status quo with the potential for transformation, they are generally marginalised – hence the usual scanning label of "fringe" for sources on emerging issues among youth, artists, social movements, the underclass, etc.

[Good scanners concentrate on identifying anomalies and patterns from their daily scans with a detailed knowledge of where information resides using proprietary and utility technology to find the best material versus source categorisation. Scanners need to be open-minded, able to see opportunties and threats in change phenomena, and recognise entirely new areas for investigation within and far beyond their core interests.

Look for material that expresses:

New, novel, advance, innovation, renovation, fashion, latest, renew, innovate, newness, fresh,
First, inception, conception, initiative, beginning, debut, onset, birth, infancy, start, dawn, commencement
Idea, notion, belief, apprehension, thought, impression, ideation, point of view, standpoint, theory, prediction
Change, alteration, mutation, permutation, variation, modification, inflexion, mood, deviation, turn, inversion, subversion, forecast
Surprise, marvel, astonish, amaze, wonder, stupefy, fascinate, dazzle, startle, take aback, electrify, stun, bewilder, boggle, wildcard
Opportunity: chance, opening, crisis, juncture, conjuncture, favourable, high time
Threat: future, prospect, anticipation, perspective, expectation, horizon, outlook, look-out, coming, forthcoming, imminent, approaching, fear, uncertainty
Unprecedented: no precedent, unparalleled

Choose sources by identifying opinion leaders in specific sectors. Apply robust decision rules to choosing sources, ensuring that they incorporate both the latest high quality evidence and identify weak signals from fringe sources. Use evaluative modulators to help see patterns and gaps such as relevance, likelihood, controversy, speed, time horizon and geographic spread.

Therefore, while initially tagging a trend as having been sourced from an amateur, or the fringe, the task is to strengthen and broaden hits in order to improve source attributes towards professional and expert. If this cannot be achieved the priority rating given to an issue would be suitably reduced.

What would be measurable or documentable attributes that would help us distinguish among sources, and that would establish sources’ credibility as opinion leaders for their communities of interest?

High numbers of citations by members of the community: for science documents, literally the extent to which they are cited; for popular media, their distribution; for "fringe" literature, the "buzz," measurable also by popularity within their target audience and, in the case of blogs, their ranking by links and hits. Is the source therefore credible as an opinion leader for that community?
Market niche: to whom is the source targeted? The Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine are targeted to professionals in medical research; New Scientist is targeted to scientific professionals and decision-makers, as well as interested laypeople; Discovery is targeted entirely to interested laypeople and students. Is that documentable, e.g., by reference to mission statements or self-descriptions?
Distribution: does distribution data, or access data (in the case of web sources / info-feeds), demonstrate widespread use by members of the source’s target audience / community of interest? This would to some extent duplicate, and therefore corroborate, the citations variable, above.
Media: the medium of information distribution itself might help distinguish among expert, fringe, and punditry, in terms of print journal, professional association newsletter, tabloid, etc.

Researchers weight these variables for each trend which in turn increases, or decreases, the prioritisation of one issue versus another. These ranking systems in turn provide a useful sight check of whether the thinking has been sufficiently robust.]

Text in parens above by kind permission of Infinite Futures:

Determine what should be uploaded as follows:

Does the link aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?
Does the link explore socio-economic trends and their potential impacts?
Does the link challenge existing political, economic, social, technological, environmental assumptions and evidence?
Does the link question assumptions underlying current policies?
Does the link pioneer or employ methodologies appropriate to best practice horizon scanning, strategic planning or change management?

Good links have the following attributes:

Credible and eclectic sources from the full range of disciplines
Easy to read/plain language
Thought provoking
Future focused (except where history or today give context and
understanding of the future)
Helpful to creating future plans and actions

And question links as follows:

Is at deep-link site level wherever available
Is comprehensively described through the content classification
Correctly describes an interesting title and properly ascribed
source
Contains a description that eliminates a site’s over-claims to
fame
Includes key tags: document type, timeframe, country of origin, url, language
Only reference pre-payment sites at front page level and are
clearly marked as 'subscription' sites

Managing source material²
Information sources are best selected by individual researchers. The task of a foresight team or manager is to give hints on additional sources and to store and distribute information for future use.

The reliability of a source needs much attention: wrong information and checks cost the scarce time and resources of the organisation. Always try to triple check source material with two other similar scan hits from reputable organisations when .

Insights and Trends can be collected directly or indirectly with the support of information brokers, abstract or scanning services or internal library services.

Much of this material is already collected in disparate databases and off-line systems by discrete teams in organisations. But co-ordinating these activities through a corporate wide knowledge management system means;
Significant time savings in data collection
Wider scanning from a diverse network
Organisational sense-making is improved

Source²: Technology Foresight In Companies, Guido Reger

But I'm not a futurist!

thryller — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:03:30 CST

Planning your future¹
No-one can predict the future yet we all make plans based on our assumptions and desires. Making plans in a changing and complex environment is a little like being the captain of a ship faced with uncertain weather and variable seas. Yet, he still puts to sea in pursuit of his desires. But, despite the daunting prospects and just like the captain, if we know where we want to go we can chart a course, navigate with our compass, use our lookouts weather eyes and trim our sails to make the best of the changing conditions.

Source¹: Shaping Tomorrow

Making better plans
If you’ve ever planned for a holiday, job interview, trip to the movies, shopping for dinner, thought about what to wear for the following day or looked at your watch to check what time it is, then you have been shaping your own tomorrow using foresight to plan ahead. Foresight work is an everyday issue of life that pretty well every person on the planet engages with at some level or another. People who engage with and try to improve their Foresight seek to add greater breadth, depth and distance to the process of formulating decisions because all choices have future consequences. Yet often we rely too heavily (or solely) on history as our guide. Even the dominant western paradigm of financial markets recognises that ‘past performance is no guarantee to future success’ – a warning to consumers that is now part of any financial growth instrument.

Examining consequences
While an often significant factor for consideration, ‘history’ is an unreliable guide to the future. Most members of the public would have heard of or been exposed to some of the more common ‘foresight tools’ like forecasting, trends and scenarios.

These approaches are but three of more than forty methods that professionals use when thinking about the future and when considering in greater detail a future based issue. Foresight oriented people consciously choose to give themselves the time to consider in greater detail the future based consequences of their actions before deciding the path to take. To that extent both forecasting and trend projections are highly limited in scope, with both methods being attempts to extend history (current thinking and paradigms) by ‘predicting’ the future. Scenarios also have their place and they do so only when given specific contexts in which they can be considered. Instead, exploring the space between the ‘possible’ and ‘probable’ ensures that any assessment of the much needed ‘Breadth’, ‘Depth’ and ‘Distance’ components yields a more critical consideration of future potential.

Source: Adapted from the work of Marcus Barber (Australia 2020) with his kind permission.

Further reference

What do we mean by futures thinking?

Learning From The Past

thryller — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:59:55 CST

What can we learn from the past to help us understand the future?

Examining history can teach us much about the future.

history often repeats itself or shows how the future evolved in similar circumstances to today's world.
history too is littered with tipping points, surprises, shocks and human advances that we can learn from.
history is as much unknowable as what we perceive is the reality of today or what the future holds.

Historic surprise has manifested itself in many situations including:

the thought that everything that could be invented had been invented at the end of the 19th century
IBM's prediction that the world would need only 7 computers to run its affairs
Western Union predicting that "the telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication" in 1876

We now know these predictions and ideas were extraordinarily fanciful. The 20th century, far from being benign, saw man fly both terrestrially and in space, discover nuclear energy, design personal vehicles for mass human transportation, link almost everyone through global telecommunication systems and significantly improve both health and longevity. These discoveries completely changed the world. And, of course "the war to end all wars" was followed by the Second World War and hundreds more since. Nothing is forever and the only constant in life is change.

The same human opportunity to change the world again, for better or worse, in this century presents itself through advances in robotics, remote sensoring, artificial intelligence, anti-ageing, sustainable practices and energy transformation etc. Yet new threats present clear and present danger such as financial chaos, climate change, pandemics, natural resource shortages, new wars and as yet new unforeseen wildcards.

Examining history shows us that the pace and nature of change is accelerating more rapidly than ever before. The outcome of this acceleration has been to make the world increasingly more complex and uncertain. We can expect even greater complexity and uncertainty as ever more sophisticated response to improving the human condition and solving today's issues creates new surprises tomorrow.

Two driving forces have been instrumental in accelerating change:

Globalisation: markets have progressively moved from local to national, to international, to multi-national to truly global and soon to be virtualised systems. This expansion has lead to increasing sophistication, rapid product and service diffusion and innovation and learning on a global scale.
Techological advancement: The technological revolution has been a key driver of this diffusion and in making the world a far smaller place through dramatic improvements in transportation and the arrival of near-instant communication.

Knowing the future is impossible – yet essential, not least in business. The right decisions offer huge opportunities, the wrong ones, huge risks. Watching the unfolding effect of these and other key driving forces is therefore an essential element of spotting emerging opportunities and threats. Historical analysis of how an issue has developed and considering this in the context of parallels and precedents is an essential part of practical foresight.

Two counterpoint maxims for you to consider:

"Those who drive their car through the rear-view mirror will never see the future"
"Those who don't read history are doomed to re-live it!"

A good futurist is therefore most likely a good historian too through knowing the potential outcomes of the past, applying these to emerging issues and considering potential futures in equal measure.

Further references: A Brief History of the Future

Next: Changing Futures Back: Home To: Shaping Tomorrow

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.

Imagining the future

thryller — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:56:32 CST

We can imagine the future by thinking about change in three dimensions:

Projecting current trends
Considering potential events
Choosing among the options

Projecting current trends: Trends are changes occuring over time in (p)olitical, (e)conomic, (s)ocial and (t)echnological spectrums. These spectrums are often stated as an acronym such as STEP, STEEP or PESTLE where the additional E is for the Environment and the L for legal.

Trends occur gradually but at varying degrees of speed and impact and can be exploited to take advantage of the opportunity or to avoid the damage a trend may threaten. But, beware! "A trend is only a trend until it bends".

Spotting the turning or inflection point before it happens is where the greatest opportunity to exploit the change often occurs. Crowds blindly pursuing a trend can often lead to the creation of a bubble (the 2008 financial crisis for example) with the result that, like lemmings, most go over the cliff together while the more foresightful live to tell the tale.

Considering potential events: Trends are relatively easy to spot but predicting the impact and likelihood of a future event is not. Unforeseen or uncertain events are hard to anticipate but we can learn from history and envision the type of surprise (a wild card in the extreme) that might come along. While not predictable considering potential events helps to strengthen an organisation at times of potential change. For instance, Matsushita told his managers that he was artificially going to peg the yen against the dollar several multiples higher than it then was after the Second World War. He told his managers this new exchange rate would now be used to calculate his company's performance. When asked why he would do such a thing he replied "because one day it will be at this level!" Several years later his prediction came true and Panasonic was able to flood the U.S market with cheap electronics and hence build an empire.

Considering potential events like tipping and inflection points and surprises helps us to see how we might cope in a crisis or exploit the opportunity. It helps organisations become more resilient to change under more circumstances than just maintaining the status quo and hence increases the chances for survival, innovation, performance improvement and long-term success.

Choosing among the options: Like Matsushita, choices have to be made from the considered trends and events and action plans put in place to maximise the outcomes.

Determination at the outset to take action as a result of conducting Practical Foresight will bring great rewards but without it all that results are increased costs, wasted resources and time and considerable disappointment from all concerned.

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Future Assumptions

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:47:30 CST

Philosophy

The future cannot be predicted and is not-pre-determined.
Tomorrow will be little like today.
What people say could never happen usually does!
"Futures studies is not prediction, but exploration and provocation!" (Source: Infinite Futures)
Decisions are based on what is known and in making those decisions the future is pre-determined.
Being better informed of potential, possible and plausible futures helps to make better informed decisions.
There is not one future but many possible futures. Of those possible futures, some are more plausible, probable and preferable than others.
The future is something we can create or shape, rather than be already decided.

Risk assessment
Foresight encompasses:

Horizon Scanning for upcoming change
Strategic Thinking through consideration of the change issues raised
Action Planning from the learning gained
Networking, both to inform the programme or project and to communicate decisions and results to the various stakeholders.

This process ought to be continuous and its elements cycled around as the future unfolds. Missing components run the risk of sub-optimum outcomes or, worse, failure. Risk assessment and plans to manage threats are therefore essential upfront.

Need for integration
Scanning as a standalone activity is largely ineffective if it's not integrated with:

Managerial sense-making activities
Managing risk and uncertainty
Periodic reviews of decision-making assumptions and mental models
Ongoing strategic thinking and planning
Inherent in scenario planning, wild car or consequence exercises
Policy development
Organisational creative thinking processes

Further reference

Next: Futures Outcomes Back: Foresight Approaches To: Shaping Tomorrow

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.

Editorial review

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:44:10 CST

An essential part of the process of writing briefs is the editorial review. This includes copy editing, peer review and sometimes client panel and crowd review.

Copy editing
Copy editing is the work that an editor does to make formatting changes and improvements to a brief. Copy editing is done to make sure that the document you produce is clear and accurate--that no errors of fact, grammar, punctuation, or style get in the way of the intended message. A professional and independent copy editor is best to undertake this work.

A good copy-editor will:

clean up spelling
improve grammar and sentence structure
achieve consistency of elements: e.g. Footwear and footwear, percent and %, Smart Shoe and "smart shoe", customise and customize, 6.1 billion and 14.2bn. In each case, one would select the variant that makes the most sense and apply it throughout.
decide on American, British or other language usage
query the use of certain words - when the author writes 'progress', for example, does he/she actually mean 'process'?
query the meaning of particular sentences that lack clarity
check that the references in the report match the endnotes at the back and that they are ordered sequentially
request that the sources be fully cited - dates, journal names, author names or URLs.
suggest improvements to the overall structure of the document, the order in which the sections appear, the layout and formatting

Copy-editing is relatively cheap and fast to do if given to a professional and can turn a well-written piece into a joy too to read. A copy-edited document will also give the reader confidence in the quality of the work.

Source: Copy-editing - Wikipedia

Peer review
Peer review is the process of subjecting a brief, research or ideas to the scrutiny of others who are experts in the same field. Peer review requires a community of experts in a given (and often narrowly defined) field, who are qualified and able to perform impartial review. Professional future briefs always involve peer review to encourage authors to meet the accepted standards of their discipline and prevent the dissemination of irrelevant findings, unwarranted claims, unacceptable interpretations, and personal views. Publications that have not undergone peer review are likely to be regarded with suspicion by scholars and professionals.

It is difficult for an individual author or research team to spot every mistake or flaw in a complicated piece of work. This is not necessarily a reflection on the individuals concerned, but because with a new and perhaps eclectic subject, an opportunity for improvement may be more obvious to someone with special expertise or who simply looks at it with a fresh eye. Therefore, showing work to others increases the probability that weaknesses will be identified and improved.

Source: Abridged from Peer Review - Wikipedia

Client review
It is also good practice to pass the brief for review to a client nominated panel for the same reasons. The purpose of these reviews is not to water down the findings or introduce further biases but to ensure that the brief is robust, current, highly relevant and stimulating and that the key question(s) it seeks to answer is fully explored.

Wisdom of Crowds
If the briefing is not intended to be private then it can be shared with stakeholders and/or members of the public. Best practice here would allow commenting perhaps through publishing on a website.

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.

Future Briefings

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:43:03 CST

Future briefings are a key output of any Horizon Scanning project or programme and summarise the research undertaken thus far. Their purpose is to describe the future of a wide range of trends, uncertainties, wildcards and drivers of change and present possible and plausible outcomes.

Depending on desired outcomes Future Briefings can be presented as pithy, reduced one pagers or be presented as full-blown major research reports covering all the topics in the list above.

Style
Excellent briefs:

convey authority, originality and energy
inspire, engage, enable and challenge thinking
provide knowledge rather than information or data
offer wisdom through strong evidence and powerful thinking
create a working knowledge of previously little or unknown issues
suggest new directions of thought

To be successful brief writing needs to be:

relevant, topical, robust, meaningful, impactful
written in a sharp, punchy style to attract potential readers
on message and not stray off the point
challenge readers assumptions about the future
speak actively rather than passively in lively but not flowery language
jargon-free and acronym friendly
descriptive and analytical

For inspiration on how others write short briefs visit he re

Writing a briefing about the future can only provide a patchwork guide to tomorrow's world. But we can improve on this patchwork by ensuring we consider every key aspect of how the future may evolve. Improvement involves not just considering every aspect but also in removing undue bias perhaps seduced by expert credentials or tricked by fanciful assumptions and using appropriate processes.

So, in writing a brief we need to ask tough questions of ourselves in how well it answers the key question(s) we are seeking to answer.

Brief aspects
Best practice, full Future Briefings usually include commentary and analysis on the following aspects:

Abstract | Table of Contents | What is changing? | Why is this important? | Summary findings | History | Current conditions | Anticipated capabilities | Geographies affected | Market response | Data points | Forecasts | Assumptions | What to watch | Who to watch | Supporting data | Early indicators | Drivers & inhibitors | Parallels & precedents | Counter-trends | Spin offs | Shortcomings | Disruptions | Weak signals | Wild cards | Trigger events | Methods used | Next steps | Sources

For full descriptions of the above commentary and analysis visit here.

Not all of these aspects may be required for a particular brief but their exclusion should be carefuly considered before rejection, for often as not the harder to answer aspects are where the rich sources of discovery and learning lie and where the future may not turn out quite as we imagined. For instance considering 'parallels and precedents' often helps us to see how history may repeat itself or 'shortcomings' may provide a rich source for extended innovation and 'wild cards' help us to see alternative futures from extreme perspectives.

An excellent brief also quickly informs the reader of its purpose and what can be learned as part of the abstract. It will detail who produced it, what the intentions of the author are (for instance, if the brief is to concentrate on extremes or continuing trends, how widely it will be shared and whether it specifies actions in the external world or organisation for whom it is produced.

Referencing
Although Sources appears as the last topic in the list above this does not reflect its importance in providing an audit trail and link to more supporting background material. Quality assurance ensures that underlying analysis is open to challenge. A researchers role here is to select high-quality references that support the Future Briefing in a fair, objective manner and that offer alternative and challenging views where appropriate. The researchers role is to identify how the future is evolving and how it might be re-framed by events and colliding driving forces.

And, key to writing is the author putting themselves in their audiences shoes and ensuring that undue bias has been removed and appropriate processes engaged to produce a convincing end product as follows:

Undue bias
Specificity: does the brief explain its intent to spell out what will happen or to illuminate possible alternatives or both? Does it suggest too much or too litlle certainty? Is it clear about the pace of change, does it specify time frames or is this unclear?
Information quality: how extensive and corrobated is the data? Is it current? Does it use best available information from primary and secondary sources? is the data real or projected?
Interpretation: Is there a selective choice of facts? Is there prejudicial organisation, people or product emphasis? Is personal emotion expressed or a worst/best case assumed for the likely outcome? Is the brief sponsored; does it express self-interest? Are ideology and idealism prominent? Does it describe a single issue future? Has it been peer reviewed?
Assumptions: Has sufficient scanning been conducted and assumptions triangulated from different perspectives? Are the assumptions made explicit? Are the assumptions valid and reasonable?
Groupthink: Does the brief question prevailing wisdom and continuing paradigms? Does it anticipate shifts in societal, political and economic behaviour or technological transformations or accept the staus quo? Does the brief rely solely on expert opinion? Does it stretch thinking and suggest new paradigms?

Appropriate processes
Methods and models: Does the brief detail the methods used? Are these methods suficiently robust for the job in hand?
Quantitative limits: Are the use of quantitative methods appropriate? Does the quantification stand the tests of common-sense and rule of thumb?
Managing complexity: Has the brief over-simplified or made the story too complex? Does the brief show the inter-connectedness of issues and their cause and effect on each other? Does the brief show how things could arrrive faster or slower than anticipated? Does the forecast suggest continuing 'no', 'business-as-usual', or 'exponential' change.
Drivers and restrainers: Are the key driving and restraining forces defined? Is friction between these built-in? Are trends purely projected? Does the brief adequately state how usable a new innovation is likely to be and the expected take up? Does it detail the opposing views of key stakeholders? Does the brief sufficiently challenge social, cultural or moral norms? Whose side of the law is it on? Does it suggest a love affair with technology? Does the brief over or under estimate the time to arrival or the pace at which people's habits change? Does the brief suggest what will change, not change? Is the brief too gung ho for suggesting fast, transformatory change?

Use this page as a checklist to check the quality of your work before copy-editing and peer review and expect your reviewers to use similar checklists to give their feedback.

Further reference: Future Savvy, Adam Gordon

Retiring trends

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:22:48 CST

Tier 1 and 2 issues will occasionally need retiring or downgrading to Tier 3 or 4. This can occur because the issue is superceded or diminishes in its urgency, potential impact or likelihood.

By moving issues up and down the Tiers, and only removing obsolete issues the integrity of the issues base is maintained.

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.

Developing perspective

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:22:23 CST

First, breaking down how an issue operates in terms of mapping its system interactions. Here's an example from the Packaging Market:

A fast way to create an instant similar map (represented as a 360 degree searchable tag cloud) is available from the Shaping Tomorrow front page (www.shapingtomorrow.com).

Then ask yourself how incumbents and upstarts':

are better anticipating the future?
making change?
creating new forms of competition?
altering their cultures?
are innovating?
creating new metrics?
changing their processes?
assessing and mitigating risk?
increasing their sales and marketing?
improving their strategies?
deal with their existing and future workforce and workplace?

For in your answers lie your opportunities and threats going forward!

As you explore add new material to your evidence base and determine how policy and strategy might need to change as things evolve.

Copyright: Some rights reserved. This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.

Evaluation

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:21:43 CST

The next step in completing the brief is for the author and/or evalation team to assess the signal strength, timing and likely public response to the issue from an external assessment perspective. Indicators include:

Change type: improvement | discovery | event | perspective | policy | trend | transformation | uncertainty | wild card
Time frame: now | 5-9 years | 10 -14 years | 15-20 years | 20+ years | never
Penetration: non-existing | trial | niche | widespread | ubiquitous
Potential: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Likelihood: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Urgency: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Complexity: disorder | simple | complicate | complex | chaotic
Controversy: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Geography: local | national | regional | global cyberspace | outer space
Rate of change: instant | days | months | years | decades |
Maturity: weak signal | emerging | growing | maturing | declining

Then the client evaluation team should complete an internal assessment of the opportunities and threats faced by the organisation in confronting the issues raised in the brief. Indicators include:

Decision: tier 1 | tier 2 | tier 3 | tier 4
Opportunity: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Motivation: legally must do | time constrained | high value | scarce resources | growth
Cost savings: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Difficulty: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Risk: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Cost: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Approach: lead | expolit | adopt \ also ran | just in time

A good discipline is also to evaluate the stimulus offered by the brief to readers as follows:

Inspiring: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Engaging: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Enabling: very high | high | medium | low | very low
Novelty: shock | surprise | new news | old news | none

and to assess the quality of the evidence taken in the round

Credentials: expert | professional | pundit | amateur | fringe
Bias: very impartial | somewhat impartial | balanced | somewhat partial | very partial
Methodology: robust analysis | partial analysis | commentary | opinion led | speculative
Assumptions: accurate | specific | deduced | faulty | inaccurate

Completing this assessment for all briefs then gives the decision and policy makers clear distinctions as to which briefs:

Which briefs possess the most external potential
Which must be acted on now, managed, watched or left on the shelf for another future review.
Which briefs represent the biggest stimulus and challenge for change
Which have robust and which have only rudimentary evidence.

Further reference: How to Evaluate Science and Technology Forecasts

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Scanning methods

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 15:16:24 CST

Different organisations use a variety of ways to encourage strategic thinking through serendipitous discovery. Their intent is to engage people in continuous thinking about potential future issues, uncover previously unseen opportunities and risks and determine their implications for the organisation. Here are some common methods used by our clients:

Organisation-wide approach: One method of driving idea management throughout an organisation is through using a web-based system for collecting ideas and concepts. Local teams often collect this information themselves but applying the same principles across the whole organisation means greater idea transference and adoption. Encouraging disciplined adding, tagging of, commenting on and ranking of Insights and Trends is one way to create continuous organisational narrative and thought transference and a better view of the emerging landscape.

Groupthink: People are encouraged to record and tag Insights of interest to them over a period of time e.g. a week, month or quarter. No restraints are placed on what people record but they are expected to talk to their Insights at a group meeting at the end of the period. The group discusses everyone’s recorded Insights and then agrees on new trends, uncertainties and wild cards that need adding to their Trends base. This process is repeated with the group adding new Insights to their existing Trends, retiring old ones and adding new ones as the future unfolds. Further research is then carried out on these selected issues as described in the sections on Strategic Thinking and Action Planning.

Project or Programme focus: Encouraging associates to browse latest Insights and Trends added by others, or to use a web-based scanning system every time they start a project or programme or need to consider future implications of their actions is a way of creating a forward thinking culture. This brings similar benefits in terms of making sense of idea and views held in the organisation by aggregation and visualisation.

Issue-focused: Another method takes a specific issue and asks everyone to use the method above to find multi-sourced insight and ideation activities that would help solve the problem, create an opportunity or reduce a risk. This method improves on the generic company idea scheme by focusing on key issues as they arise resulting in more quick wins, far greater stakeholder engagement and visible successes.

Out-of-the box thinking: A different approach but with the same underlying principles is to ask people to regularly research and contribute areas outside of their own disciplines. For instance a marketing person reviewing latest technologies or an IT specialist researching finance developments. This type of approach often reduces organisational barriers, increases cross-team empathy and drives innovation through better awareness of solutions beyond current paradigms. People are encouraged to record and tag Insights on topics unfamiliar to them but directly related to their work over a period of time e.g. a week, month or quarter. No restraints are placed on what people record but they are expected to report their Insights to a central group of reviewers at the end of the period. The process then follows the Group Think process above.

Citation analysis: Leading organisations adopt a variety of methods to obtain serendipitous discovery here. Some regularly search for first mentions of new keywords, organisations or patents. Others track favourite sources or watch key competitors, countries or ongoing R&D projects. For instance, fresh insight can be gained by examining previously unheard of organisations and looking to discover their unique selling points. These can then be compared to the needs of an organisation and the learning shared.

Scouting networks: New Insights can also be identified through listening posts or an international scouting network of external or internal people to the organisation. Tasks include scanning the research scene, in both academia and start-ups for new knowledge, technologies or competitive threats and opportunities.

The main benefit of the scouting method is the reduced time lag between the discovery and identification of an emerging Insight. This time lag can be up to 18 to 24 months in publication and patent analysis compared to a robust scouting process.
Scouts are expected to provide a title, short description, references, an image (if available), a judgement on potential and potential applications and possible risks.Out of a long-list of scouted Insights an editor together with an expert panel selects a short-list according to potential impact based on:

entirely new highly impactful Insights
important direct development changes to existing Insights
important indirect development changes to existing Insights
important rises in take up, or awareness, of an impactful Insight

The expert group rates on three dimensions: urgency, impact, likelihood of success to produce a prioritised listing of all impactful Insights. Changes to existing policies and strategies are then implemented as appropriate.

There can be a comparatively high cost for the establishment, management and maintenance of an extensive scouting network.

Another disadvantage is the lack of scalability when using the scouting method. Each scout has a limited identification and processing capacity and therefore a desired output increase can only be achieved by a continuous increase in the number of scouts. This increase overhead management.

Stakeholder surveys
Surveys are a fast way to find out what others see in terms of future development.

Survey types

Field trips
Windshield surveys
Key "informant surveys"
Issues-oriented surveys
Delphi studies
Public opinion polls
Staff surveys
Prediction markets

Design of surveys needs careful consideration and must focus clearly on answering the key question(s) you need to answer.

Key steps

Establish the key questions and overarching goal(s) of your survey
Determine who is your target sample
Choose your method
Test the questions
Conduct the survey
Analyse the results
Produce the output
Add to the Horizon Scanning database

Culture
Most adopt a combination of these approaches and have established regular forums amongst participants to discuss perceived underlying shifts hidden in their latest Insights research. These then become new Trends to track as a first step to clustering Trends into Key Drivers affecting the organisation.

These methods, and more, can be used for visioning, target setting, road mapping, scenario planning, option selection and risk assessment among others. Each relies on more convergent strategic innovation approaches through a co-ordinating staff function, heavy use of system analytics, encouraging diverse thinking, parallel exploration and decision-making.

Above all, leadership and commitment to action from the very top of the organisation is key to making innovation a cornerstone of an organisations strategy. Organisations take a variety of approaches to creating an innovation culture but best practice companies have carefully considered and articulated their vision, the values they expect people to adhere too, the the measures of success, the processes and measures to gauge progress and the ongoing communication mechanisms to inspire, engage and enable.

Common flaws

Choice: same tool every time, attempting too much rigour, attempting too much creativity
Application: excluding participation, process inflexibility
Communication: no explicit time horizon, theoretical base or values, too much complexity, no dialogue or action

Further reference

What Are The Most Effective Approaches To Drive An Innovation Pipeline
Adapted from The Technology Radar -an Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy, R. Rohrbeck, J. Heuer, H. Arnold - Deutsche Telekom Laboratories (2006)
Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, Rene Rohrbeck (2007)
Survey design : Survey System
Introduction to Survey Methodology and Design : Sysurvey
Survey and Questionnaire Design : Statpac

Horizon Scanning

thryller — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 15:10:40 CST

What is Horizon Scanning?
Horizon scanning is both an intelligence led and evidence-based* method for obtaining answers to key question(s) about the future. It is the best place to start when one or more people desire more information on a particular upcoming trend, uncertainty or wild card that may affect them or their organisation. Or, when an organisation wants to watch specific issues to spot upcoming change.

Horizon scanning is analogous to an early warning radar, a continuous process of pinging the environment to identify signals of change. An excellent early warning radar looks at all aspects of the global environment. Locating sources** of change from everywhere, evaluating likelihood, monitoring growth and tracking spread provides the early warning system for impending change.

By collecting, analysing and picturing what's likely/unlikely to happen within the global environment mental models of possible and probable futures can be created from which preferable futures can be chosen. By choosing preferable futures people and organisations shape their and our tomorrows.

The goal of Horizon Scanning is therefore to always describe "How will the future be different?" while Strategic Thinking and Action Planning determine "What should be done about it?"

Pre-requisites

'Out of the box' thinking, an open mind and a desire to discover new things
Exposure to many sources, ideas and challenges
Looking beyond personal and organisational, comfort zones and specialisations
Noting opportunities and risks in an ordered fashion.

With practice you will attune your mind and be able to spot potential upcoming change accurately, quickly and effectively.

Scanning timeframes ¹

Ad-hoc scanning - Short term, infrequent examinations usually initiated by a crisis
Regular scanning - Studies done on a regular schedule (say, once a year)
Continuous scanning - (also called continuous learning) - continuous structured data collection and processing on a broad range of environmental factors

Most commentators feel that in today's turbulent business environment the best scanning method available is continuous scanning. This allows the firm to act quickly, take advantage of opportunities before competitors do, and respond to environmental threats before significant damage is done

Scanning methods

Collaborative foresight: Engaging the organisations people
Surveys: Using surveys of stakeholders to elicit their views
Search: Using search to find material of relevance to answering the question(s)
Exercises: Conducting internal and external strategic exercises
Scouting networks: Employing international networks of savvy people to report change

Each can standalone or be employed in conjunction with the other two approaches.

Further reference

* Source citations including tagging, commenting, faceting and analysis of material.
** The original provider of the evidence or intelligence noting or commenting on emerging change. Sources can be "hard/quantitative": Statistical data sets or "soft/qualitative": Personal perspectives on possibilities or issues.

Next: Strategic Thinking Back: Futures Presentations To: Shaping Tomorrow

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Ways of seeing

thryller — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:44:28 CST

Successful seeing relies on synthesising and fragmenting disparate pieces into "meaningful wholes" or new patterns. Rather than breaking up information into pieces, a manager's, policy maker's and consultant's intuition and vision is needed for the opposite reason.

Ways of seeing¹

See ahead: looking to what's coming next
See behind: understanding the past
See above: taking a helicopter view
See below: finding the diamond in the rough
See beside: removing the blinkers
See beyond: questioning what's beyond the horizon
See through: actioning the thinking above

Source¹: Strategic thinking as 'seeing', Henry Mintzberg (1998)

Techniques

Bookmark sources
Become a newsletter junkie
Experience a service
Go beyond your immediate interests
Look for new inventions
Look outside your industry
Maintain an idea log
Network with forward-thinkers
Pick a time-frame
Revisit the past
Scan the scanners
Set up a futures panel
Take a global perspective
Vary your routine
Search patents, new books etc.
Conduct a bibliographic search

Principles

Explore both sides of the ledger to gain a complete picture
Think micro and macro at all times
Use "multiple lenses" to look at the same information or situation
Look for ways to "triangulate" (verify from multiple sources) information
Accept and think beyond felt needs and opportunities
Incorporate diverse sources and viewpoints
Consider both internal and external perspectives
Use multiple techniques
Explore both needs and constraints and opportunities and assets
Form a global view without being superficial or narrowly focused
Involve those who can act on the information
Promote only realistic expectations
Ensure your research decision criteria are clear upfront

Opportunity of crisis

thryller — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:22:01 CST

Uncertainty and turmoil rule; and will do for quite some time. But despite the crises, there will still be opportunities out there, but companies will need to work harder and with a keener eye on the future than ever, if they are to win through. Examining the options; thinking through the implications; looking for win:wins; and being fast and flexible are even more important in the bad times than in the good times.

The recent U.S bailout package by Congress is not the end of the global crisis. It may get the U.S money markets moving again but a recession is likely despite the actions of many countries around the world to stabilise confidence. Many companies and consumers are feeling the pressure; surviving today feels like the only game in town. And it is unclear as to whether the actions which governments and national banks have taken so far will work.

The economies of the world are likely to come out of the other side of the crisis different. New regulations, new rules, new priorities – and new opportunities. The bursting of the Dot.com bubble in the late nineties provides a parallel and precedent to the current crisis.

The companies that went to the wall during the bubble were those whose business models were fundamentally flawed: a race for egotistical growth, profligate spending and low concentration on inherent risk, inappropriate capitalisation and shareholder returns.
Many companies, affected by, but not critically wounded, waited out the storm by cutting vital investment and jobs intending to begin again after the storm passed. Most never did!
The smart companies, many that we all now know as household names, protected and even enhanced their investments, ensured they kept their team together and swept up great people and assets displaced from less forward-thinking organisations.

Pressure on resources is creating opportunities for innovation and new products, such as processes to reduce water consumption; technologies to scavenge energy; reducing energy consumption in data centres; collaborating with customers to find new solutions; waste as a feedstock for biofuels. But to make these happen, a sense of direction and vision from management are essential. So too are looking beyond the immediate crisis to see what opportunities may be out there; being able to prioritise them; developing the flexibility to take advantage of them; and staying in touch with your stakeholders’ needs all the while.

The question for management is whether they want to be like an ostrich and ignore the options; a rabbit transfixed in the headlights of the approaching crisis; or a bird ever watchful and making the most of the few updrafts that are around, and grasping the opportunities as they arise.

Smart organisations look to learn from the past and simultaneously learn from the future by creating a forward-thinking culture whether the times are good, bad or awful.

Further Reference: It's No Time To Forget About Innovation

Changing Futures

thryller — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:19:38 CST

The world today

The most significant changes affecting organisations know no borders or markets and affect every part of society today. Global trends, uncertainties and surprises have the potential to significantly change the way the world works tomorrow. Countries, governments, businesses and institutions continue to witness ever increasing surprise as complexity increases. New surprises impact on us all far faster, and more profoundly, than we might think e.g. pandemics, changing weather conditions, terrorist events, social values, economic and political uncertainties and technological advance.

Organisations too, face additional new challenges including:

severe competition,
market convergence,
new entrants, and
high volatility in all aspects of their activities.

The world tomorrow?

Greater prospects for global, national and local disruption and shock are increasingly in evidence.
Forecasting models projecting past patterns can therefore no longer be relied upon to predict the future.
An increasing number of drivers are reshaping companies business context.
Drivers include climate change, globalization, new technology, regulatory change, demographics, and new consumer values.
Shaping the world we want to live in means being more aware of the future and seeking better approaches.

A new, more agile and resilience focused, approach is being led by smart, forward-thinking organisations. They have learned that searching for emerging trends, tipping points and weak signals is a vital intelligence tool to help them survive and thrive in an ever more competitive future. Consider those who were prepared for the financial crisis and those who were not! The prepared and thoughtful sail on, with hardly a mention in the media, while the high profile failures and troubled short-sighted organisations get maximum coverage and brand damage.

Forward-thinking organisations do not attempt to predict the future but are putting in place holistic systems and processes that anticipate possible futures and determine their response to them. By better preparing their organisations for change they continuously enhance their agility, capability and robustness.

Their cost-effective tools provide anticipatory intelligence but do not replace sound analysis. Instinct and sound thinking is still required but with a much improved lens and less drudgery than traditional methods.

These organisations use what they can see in the fog of the future to determine their way forward, avoiding risks, or using them to advantage, and seizing opportunities ahead of less far-sighted rivals. They continually ask themselves strategic questions to stay ahead of the game such as:

how are customer values changing?
where are the new opportunities for growth?
who might be their new competition?
what competencies will be needed tomorrow?
which capabilities need modifying/strengthening or divesting for the future?
when is the right time to move?

They know that by looking further ahead they can change a vicious reactive cycle to a responsive virtuous circle making their work more satisfying and less wasteful of time and resources.

Further References

Technology Forecast

1998: Globalization ... 2008: Continuous change

Making complexity manageable

Bringing order to chaos

Foresight and Business Futures (Slideshare: registration required)

Outside in (Slideshare: registration required)

Next: Future Practices Back: Home To: Shaping Tomorrow

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Scanning strategies

thryller — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 04:45:12 CST

Researchers usually adopt one of three scanning strategies:
Change directed: where the background is known and continuities and potential changes of any kind from the norm are sought. e.g. searching for any kind of change in an interest topic.
Signal directed: where specific, known signals, signatures, or trends are sought but little is known of the background "noise". e.g. searching for issue gaps to use in subsequent strategic planning.
Pattern directed: where apparently random signals without context and requiring interpretation are sought through emerging pattern recognition or trend analysis. e.g searching for outliers and changing distribution of observations.

and follow one of two approaches:

Evidence based Horizon Scanning (Deductive approach)
In an evidenced based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that supports an issue or that seeks to provide answers to key questions usually for a specific project and which may, or may not be repeated sometime in the future. Evidence based scanning is usually static, periodic and issue focused.

In this form of scanning the process the issue owner:

identifies strategic issues
commissions future briefing papers
asks for research to further inform the future briefing papers
demands evidence
requests citing of new evidence
conducts quality assurance
publish future briefing paper

Evidence based Horizon Scanning is focused on scan Tiers 1 and 2, must reflect best practice and be able to withstand peer review as well as credible scrutiny by informed readers. High evidence value from authoritative, relevant, well-presented sources and high stimulus value is a necessity. It should providing users with new ideas and perspectives from cutting edge material to softer perspectives on change.

One way of doing this is to discover just where the targeted readership obtains their material. A quick organisational survey will improve the quality and provide a single source for their research. In other words an enterprise wide knowledge base of evidence can be created which retains corporate memory and informs everyone of the current and past state of play. This side benefit has significant potential to reduce costs of evidence collection and increase organisational knowing.

Intelligence Based Horizon Scanning (Inductive approach)
In an intelligence based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that adds to or identifies new issues as they arise with the aim of tracking change and creating an alerting system for new opportunities and threats. Intelligence based scanning is dynamic, continuous and usually targeted at keeping up to speed on external potential change in an organisations direct and indirect key interests.

In this form of scanning the process above is reversed with the researcher:

citing fresh intelligence
discovering new patterns and connections
using research to further inform future briefing papers
creating future briefing papers
identifying strategic issues
conducting quality assurance
publishing the future briefing paper

Intelligence based Horizon Scanning is focused on scan Tiers 3 and 4. It does not require the same level of rigour in order reflect best practice and is not necessarily designed to withstand peer review and credible scrutiny by informed readers. However, it must still provide high intelligence value from authoritative, relevant and well-presented sources and high stimulus value through providing users with new ideas and perspectives on a diverse range of topics. It should range from sourcing hard publications to softer perspectives on change and be aimed at a far wider community than just experts,

Balancing the need for evidence and intelligence
A well-structured Horizon Scanning system will support both evidence and intelligence based methods..

However, often a scan needs updating it needs to be systematic and repeatable. At the same time, users need to see the bigger picture around their strategic issues, rather than diving into detail. It is also the case that trends tend to change slowly. Even shocking events, such as 9/11, are usually – if a scanning process is robust – evidence of trends or emerging issues which have already been identified.

In this sense, therefore, in building a repeatable horizon scanning process, the perfect is the enemy of the good. One can always make an evidence/intelligence base better, but there comes a point where diminishing returns set in, and money spent on improving the evidence/intelligence base further would be better spent on engagement or communication.

A balance can be struck by using the tiers to prioritise actions; ongoing undirected scanning to capture new and emerging ideas; expert review and workshops to continue to identify gaps or altered priorities; using all of these to identify where new future briefings should be written as well as linking new material to existing future briefings.

Applying systematic mapping methods ensures the scans become complete and consistent. The principal methods are bibliometrics and patent mapping. Scan entries can be visually mapped to check for gaps, which are addressed with new data from information sources.

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Learning organisation

thryller — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 04:42:49 CST

Making future thinking a key part of day-to-day problem solving and decision-making is an ideal way to create a learning organisation. Holding occasional executive sessions on the future of the organisation is less than ideal and can be dangerous if management is not alive to ever-changing opportunities and threats.

On the strategic front the executive need to be alive to the possibilities of they, or their rivals, choosing a different time and place to play from everyone else. Future thinking helps identify these new playing fields and those likely to play on them.

Futures exercises need not be time-consuming or resource intensive and can take a variety of forms engaging the whole organisation rather than just the leadership team.

Exercises

Collecting reports, plans, programme descriptions
Focus groups
Participant action approaches
Ethnographic study
Anecdotes
Case study analysis
Oral histories
Futuring exercises
Visualisation maps
Organisational health checks
Accessing networks (yours and others)
Job rotation of researchers and line people
Systematically analysing customer complaints and idea schemes
Monitoring the venture capital market and start-up firms
Executive programmes for constantly discovering stakeholder ideas
Experiential virtual world programmes; Second Life, YouTube
Foresight/Google mashups

Participatory futures exercises help stimulate high level strategic thinking by everyone involved at whatever level they are in the organisation.

Meetings
Leadership agenda's to consider the conclusions of these exercises might ask these open-ended questions:

What conclusions can we draw from the exercise(s)?
How might the future be different?
What certainties/uncertainties are implied in the conclusions?
How does A affect B?
What is likely to remain the same or change significantly?
What are the likely outcomes?
What and who will likely shape our future?
Where could we be most affected by change?
What might we do about it?
What don't we know that we need to know?
What should we do now, today?
Why do we care?
When should we aim to meet again on this?

Shell's seven questions
Or they might be more open-ended questions such as?:

If I could answer any question for you, what would it be?
If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____ space, what would it be?
If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ space, what would it be?
What does the _______ space need to forget?
What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________ space on the horizon?
What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______ space?
What are the obstacles to progress in the ________ space?
What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end)

Further reference

How often? : Tomorrow Project